Economic Outlook...

In light of the 3-way discussion about oil, my curiosity was piqued by Fred Wilson's post on "the story of 2007."

He offers that the fact that so many US businesses are being "bailed out" with foreign money is a cause for concern.

That may be true. On the other hand, it could be a sign of confidence.

But, there's another issue here (and I'll invite Laura who works for Bureau of Labor and Statistics to weigh in)...

In an economy the size of the US, is it really possible to know what is happening?

I know everyone talks about sub-prime and weakening dollar and imports/exports/visa/immigration, etc., but it just seems a $5bn investment in Morgan Stanley (while not inconsequential, of course) is really just a drop in a HUGE bucket.

On my Amazon Wish list (5 shopping days left!) are two books called Fooled by Randomness and The Black Swan. I haven't read them yet, but the recommendation that Asher and Albert sent me seemed to imply that people, in order to make sense of the world, often misinterpret singular events for larger trends.

Now, I'm not saying that there isn't a larger trend. I'm just saying, this economy is GINORMOUS and it's going to be difficult for anyone to really make sense of it.