Movie: Crude Awakening

In short, we're screwed.

Royally. Big time.

How would you feel if you knew that your children or grandchildren would never fly in an airplane? Or drive a car?

Make no mistake about it, this movie about the end of the era of cheap oil is extremely DEPRESSING, but, worse yet... what if it's reality?

What happens if, sorry when, the world does run out of cheap oil?

For a few years, I've been focused on the issue of weaning the US off of Middle Eastern oil as a key driver of national security. That's well and good, but the next question is, "ok, what do we replace it with?"

Ever since I read the Coming Economic Collapse (and my allnighter in March 2006), I've altered my investment strategy to reflect rising oil prices and it's paid off, to some extent.

But this movie raises a much larger question than a financial hedge strategy...it raises the question of...can society even survive in the wake of an ongoing decline in the availability of oil?

There are a huge number of issues, including:

• the lack of viable replacements on a large scale sufficient to meet current (and future) demand
• the lack of political will (all across the board) to focus on the enormity of the problem

There's blame all the way around, but I do remember on Sept. 12, 2001 when Bush got up and made his post-9/11 "axis of Evil" speech and challenged the US to end our oil dependence that I thought, "here's an opportunity to raise taxes on gas, etc. to fund a Kennedy-like 'man on the moon' initiative."

And we've seen nothing.

Nothing at all.

Gas is now cheaper than water, cheaper than Starbucks. The US has 2% of known reserves and consumes 25% of oil. As the Poli Sci Prof from Stanford said in the documentary,

"We have 2 choices as a society. Either we can figure out a way to create renewable energy sources that allow us to grow and live the way we want...OR we need to be prepared to go to war over oil...often."

Ironically enough, I watched this DVD on a flight to St. Louis, gazing out at miles and miles of blue skies, seeing the roads below me and reflecting upon life in a hydro-carbon/petroleum based economy. I began to worry about Tonka, Paco, and #3 (as well as all of us as we age) and wondering what the world will look like.

One commentator (the founder of dismally-named www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net) said,

"this is the end of the American Dream."

We can always hold out hope for the ingenuity of humans and new technology, but we need to recognize the enormity of the challenge that lies ahead and galvanize around it.

I used to tell people that I vote on 2 issues

1. recognition that Islamo-fascism is an existential threat to Western civilization (energy independence was a key element here)
2. the fact that the private sector does a better job than the public sector of creating jobs and wealth.

Beginning today, I vote on one issue...energy policy.

For more info, you can check out Gal Luft's org, Institute for Analysis of Global Security and Mike Granoff's effort at Secure Energy.

Gas prices...

Had a conversation with Tamar about how rising gas prices is going to make us (and other Americans) change our behavior. It led into a discussion about the possibility of oil companies price gouging and a tax on windfrall profits. (That was from Tamar's side.) I'd share my side, but my friend, Jacob Licht, did a pretty good job of summarizing it in an email to me the other day.

"All this talk about penalizing oil companies and giving Americans $100 rebates for gas is ridiculous.

Thought you’d enjoy this quick chart I made comparing profit margins at several companies where Americans spend their hard-earned dollars.


2005 Net Income 2005 Revenue NI as % of Rev

Microsoft 12,254,000 39,788,000 31%
google 1,465,397 6,138,560 24%
Ebay 1,082,043 4,552,401 24%
cisco 4,401,000 22,045,000 20%
exxon 36,130,000 370,680,000 10%
Apple 1,335,000 13,931,000 10%
Chevron 14,099,000 198,200,000 7%
Ford 2,024,000 177,089,000 1%

As you know, I have no interest in penalizing highly profitable companies (or those with low profits), so I don’t get the focus on the oil companies’ profits. In the scheme of things, they’re not such a profitable industry (see above). When you make a 7-10% margin on lots of revenue, your net income will be a large number, but at the end of the day, your margins are still only 7-10%.

You’ve studied some economics, right? When demand for a product declines, a new equilibrium between supply and demand occurs at a lower price. Shouldn’t we be focusing on reducing our demand for oil instead of penalizing the companies that are supplying it? We could also focus on increasing supply, but there’s not much that an average American can do about that. We can, however, reduce the amount of oil we consume.


I didn’t realize it until after I’d run my numbers, but Krauthammer’s op-ed today is along similar lines. It’s such a pity when economics makes politicians look dumb.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/27/AR2006042701693.html "

Between Licht and Krauthammer, the argument was summed up quite well. Thanks, team!

The indirect strategy...

Read a very interesting "Futurist Fable" this weekend on a topic called The Jewish Energy Project, written by Tzvi Bisk of the Center for Strategic Futurist Thinking in Israel.

I like his basic thesis:

Oil must once again become a commodity on par with coffee, sugar, and tea (when was the last time the world was held hostage by the price of tea?)

I do think some of the ideas seem a bit far-fetched in their optimism for how things will play out.

I also disagree with the idea that Jews should lead the effort to destroy oil's importance as a commodity (it's a Western Civilization survival issue), but his key point is right on the money.

What he did, do, however was help me re-focus on something that-for some reason-I've lost sight of in the war against Islamofascism. If you take away the power of oil as a commodity, you effectively castrate anti-Israel/anti-American/anti-Western civilization forces by drying up their sources of funding.

What he's done is making me re-evaluate the strategy for destroying our enemies.

Towards the end of the "Fable," he writes, looking back:

The War on Terror and international Jihadism was not won by the direct strategy of armed intervention but rather by the indirect strategy of destroying oil as the major international commodity. This was a lesson America should have learned from its victory over communism and the Soviet Union. It was the soft power of American technology, science, economic freedom, mass communications and democracy that eventually brought the Berlin wall down and not the hard power of armed intervention in Vietnam.

my current investment philosophy....

I’m breaking my investment efforts into three “big bet” areas. We’ll see if it pans out.

 

1. Index funds.
   Following the Random Walk on Wall Street theory of “it’s difficult to beat the market so let it ride on the Index funds.” 

 

2. The Asher Epstein Big Three.
   My brother, Asher, is an evangelist for three companies in particular. Echelon Networks (ELON), CheckFree (CKFR), and Wind River (WIND). If you know my brother, you’ll know he studies these things like very few people (he knows the CEO of CKFR and the leadership team and participates in quarterly con calls with Wall St. analysts as well having deep relationships with the Investor Relations folks at all of them).

 

There are a few others in here (Blackboard.com, for example) but the Big Three is all you need.

 

3. The Energy Doomsday Scenario. Oil goes at least to $100/barrel and maybe higher.
   Read a book called “The Coming Economic Collapse” which helped to quantify and flush out main of the ideas that I’d had in my head. These were around
1. Rising oil prices due to increased Chinese/Indian/world demand
2. Vulnerability of supply due to oil’s location in volatile regions (Middle East, Russia, Venezuela)
3. Lack of truly viable alternatives (yet)
4. America’s addiction to oil
5. And, the biggie, militant Islam’s focus on castrating the West through disruptions of supply

 

The play here is in, to varying degrees, energy companies, Gold, inflation protected assets, real estate (maybe), China/India (maybe).

Better Place and the Peace Process…

As I watched the video at the Better Place facility in Israel, I found myself thinking:

“if this works, it completely changes the face of the Middle East and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”

First, some assumptions.

1. for the most part, the Arab-Israeli conflict is kept alive by the fact that the West has to care about it in order to keep the flow of oil alive
2. were it not for oil, people really wouldn’t care about the Middle East

So, if Better Place is able to change the world dynamic from one that cares about Arab oil to one that doesn’t really care, the whole future of the region takes a massive turn.

From a strategic defense perspective, this initiative could be the most important thing to occur in the history of the state of Israel.

No, I’m not exaggerating.

For more:

Here’s my 7 minute video of a test drive of the car.

Here’s a bit on how the battery switching process (when needed) works.

Here’s the video explaining the charging process.

To a Better Place…

It’s not everyday that you get to the see the future.

But my visit to the Better Place Visitor facility was one of those days.

BetterPlace is a vision of allowing us to have the freedom of our cars with zero reliance or dependency on oil or gas.

What is happening in Israel in this respect is truly remarkable.

Imagine this…

Your car charges overnight in your garage/front yard.

In the morning, you have 160km/100miles worth of driving available to you on that charge (which is good enough for most people everyday.)

When you get to work (or wherever your destination is), you can plug in again and keep the battery full.

For much longer rides, when you don’t have time to recharge (a full charge is about 6 hours), you will pull into an automated switching stations where, in about 90 seconds, they remove the battery and replace it with a new one (video here).

What’s more, the car is connected to a smart system so that, it can tell you which battery replacement stations have the shortest wait time in them.

But, for the most part, you never really need that.

And you NEVER, ever have to fill up with gas.

To make this a reality, they are building an entire infrastructure of charging stations around Israel so that anywhere you go, you’ll just be able to plug in your car when you park.

Instead of paying for gas or electricity, you pay for the amount of miles/kilometers you drive.

Kind of like buying your cell phone and then paying for minutes…but only for the minutes you actually use.

The cars don’t need oil changes or maintenance in the conventional sense.

All of this is the feature of the car…but the way they sell it, just brilliant.

It’s a story about the environment, about health, about security and how this car company frees us from all of that. They are truly selling the movement and showing why and how this is not only necessary, but feasible.

And the cars themselves?

I test drove one and the first thing I noticed…no noise. So quiet. Handled well, accelerated beautifully. (see the video)

I’m a believer.

Not just in the car, but how this car can begin to turn the tide of global warming. To end our dependence and subservience to despotic oil regimes.

Just awesome.

For more:

Here’s my 7 minute video of a test drive of the car.

Here’s a bit on how the battery switching process (when needed) works.

Here’s the video explaining the charging process.

Iceberg Theory of Change

Longtime blog readers will remember this, but documenting it for posterity…

A few years ago, I saw a documentary about oil rigs in the North Atlantic. The biggest enemy of oil rigs are icebergs. In a confrontation between the two, the iceberg is going to win.

So, oil rigs have an elaborate anti-iceberg defense mechanism that involves radars and tugboats. Once they detect an iceberg coming, they send out a tugboat interceptor, which has three options. One is to try and blow the iceberg to smithereens.

The other two (literally lassoing the iceberg or throwing the engines in reverse in front of the iceberg to create wake) are designed to alter the course of the iceberg by a miniscule amount. However, at a distance of 300 miles, a deviation of a few degrees or so will make the iceberg miss the rig by 200 miles or something ridiculous like that (the mathematicians out there can give you the exact numbers, but you get the idea.)

So, what’s the point? Well, the sooner you see the need for change and the sooner you make the change, the easier it is going to be. It’s easier to change the course of an iceberg by 1 degree than 30 degrees, which is what you’d need to do as it gets closer to you.

Anxiety Morning...

So mornings you wake up and you're calm.

Some you are not.

It started off because I was freakin' exhausted.

I've got a nagging cough that I can't kick and which kept me up all night.

Then, the car dealer calls.

I dropped off the car on Wed. (had my cabbie pick me up at the dealer) for an oil change. Idea was to have them do the work and I'd pick it up Friday morning.

Well, apparently, the guy called my office number (which I never check) and not my cell (I was in Fargo, ND remember?).

So, I didn't find out until today that my $20 oil change had become a $750 set of repairs including a tire with nail in it, lightbulbs that were burned out, and some belt that wasn't working.

Now, I love Fitzgerald, the dealer, so I have no reason to assume they are being dishonest (though I was irritated that the guy didn't call my cell number-which he had).

And, of course, it's cold and oil has hit $100/barrel. You know how I feel about that.

All of this led to a greater than usual money anxiety AM for me.

Ugh.

Blood for Oil?

How about blood for copper? Or Zinc? Or Cobalt?

Just finished an absolutely fascinating series of articles about "ChinAfrica" in Fast Company. I HIGHLY recommend that you read them (and once you do, you'll get the irony of this suggestion: Print them out to read them, since they are quite long.)

Anyhow, the author details vividly how there is a mad rush going on in Africa (which China is winning) for natural resources that lie at the epicenter of modern wealth creation.

We're all complicit in it...US as end consumers, China as extractor, and corrupt African dictators as well. Combine that with a Chinese willingness to look the other way re: human rights in Africa and bribery and the US gov't (and consumer!) willingness to ignore Chinese policy...and we have the makings of a resource war.

In his book, China: The Gathering Threat, Constantine Menges argues that the Chinese outlook (political and military) along with the need for resources puts the USA on a collision course with the mainland.

Reading these articles, you've got to wonder if he is right.

While a full on war may not be the end result, what could be are:

• less democracy and human rights in Africa
• continued kleptocracy and poverty
• Chinese crackdown on internal protests to which the world turns a blind eye
• and the total devastation of the majority of the earth's natural resources (in Africa).

The NFO asked me the other day about rising food prices. "Will it get better?"

"Not in the short term. It's going to get worse before it gets better. Oil is at the center and rising living standards around the world contribute as well. Time to find other, cheaper sources of nutrition."

You know my investment policy is weighted (and has been for 2.5 years now) towards oil going to $200/barrel. And that I have some strong views on this topic (economically and politically).

Time to add another one.

Iceberg Theory of Change

A few years ago, I saw a documentary about oil rigs in the North Atlantic.

The biggest enemy of oil rigs are icebergs. In a confrontation between the two, the iceberg is going to win.

So, oil rigs have an elaborate anti-iceberg defense mechanism that involves radars and tugboats. Once they detect an iceberg coming, they send out a tugboat interceptor, which has three options.

One is to try and blow the iceberg to smithereens.

The other two (literally lassoing the iceberg or throwing the engines in reverse in front of the iceberg to create wake) are designed to alter the course of the iceberg by a miniscule amount.

However, at a distance of 300 miles, a deviation of a few degrees or so will make the iceberg miss the rig by 200 miles or something ridiculous like that (the mathematicians out there can give you the exact numbers, but you get the idea.)

So, what’s the point?

Well, the sooner you see the need for change and the sooner you make the change, the easier it is going to be. It’s easier to change the course of an iceberg by 1 degree than 30 degrees, which is what you’d need to do as it gets closer to you.

Of course, my sister accuses me of having complex theories for simple ideas. This is also known as "ounce of prevention, pound of cure," but I like the visuals here better.

How a $25 discount will probably lead to a $20,000 sale.

As a student of business, I have to highlight the service that I get from my auto dealership, Fitzgerald auto mall.

When I bought my car there two years, I bought a service plan which entitles me to free and discounted service for oil changes, etc.

Since then, I have been blown away by their service. Whenever I call, they have availability. When I arrive, they are courteous. They offer me a free metro card (most times) when I have to leave my car.

On Friday, I went in and since I get low mileage, my months/mileage ratio is a bit off. The woman at the counter said, "just use the free oil change, don't worry about it."

That was at 7.30am. I was back at 2.30pm (they had called to say they were done) and picked up my keys. I noticed a charge for $23. I was a bit puzzled. Before I could say anything, the same woman came over to me and said, "Mr. Epstein, we noticed when we did the check of your car that the wipers were streaking, so we went ahead and changed them for you. We couldn't get in touch with you, so if you want, I can remove the charge."

Whoa. When someone asks like that, am I really going to quibble? No. Go ahead and charge me.

Then, as I examined the bill more closely, I noticed a $25 discount listed. I asked.

"Well, when the technician came in and told me about the wipers, I said, 'Mr. Epstein obviously takes care of his car, he's not going to care about $25 for new wipers.' But when the tech came back, he told me the wipers were $50. I thought that was too much, so I gave you a discount on the spot since you're a good customer."

This all happened without my involvement.

You know, with this next baby on the way, I've been thinking about the next car I'm going to have to buy, a minivan, and one of the concepts I've picked up during my career in the technology industry is TCO=Total Cost of Ownership. Not just how much does the car cost, but how much will it cost to operate, gas, oil changes, etc. What's great about my dealer is that they minimize TCO and hassle (which is a part of TCO).

I decided that though I didn't know what type of minivan I will buy, I'm pretty certain I'll buy it at Fitzgerald.

Good to Great D'var Torah

This is the d'var torah on Apr. 3rd. I'll be delivering it at the Hashkama minyan (the 7am one) and it'll differ probably in delivery since I will probably ad-lib more, but you'll get the idea.

It's for a uniquely Jewish/business-minded crowd (and of course a few Rabbis).

The students of business among you may be familiar with an author by the name of Jim Collins. Best known perhaps for his book, Built to Last, his most recent best-seller is entitled “Good to Great,” where he describes the characteristics that enable competent companies to make the transition to superior companies.

This week’s Parsha, Tzav, illustrates some of these characteristics. For example, you need
· Level 5 leadership (a selfless persona devoted to the long-term success of the company more than to his own ego),
· to have the “right people on the bus” and the “wrong people off the bus”
· and a culture of disciplined thought and action.

It’s easy to dismiss Parsha Tzav as tedious. Trust me, I know. 18 years ago today, I delivered the obligatory Bar Mitzvah d’var Torah on it. Perhaps that’s why I chose to focus on the lone shalshelet outside of Breishit for my topic.

I mean, what difference does it really make if we put a drop of blood on the right toe of the kohen, what part of the bull can be eaten, what the appropriate amount for a meal offering is, or that if a vessel of clay become impure we must break it, but if it is brass, we must only scour it completely?

These are nice, but are they really relevant? Unfortunately, for those of you craving cholent and scotch right about now, they are.

The operative word in this parsha is Tzav, literally “command.” Rashi suggests that the imperative form of the verb creates a sense of urgency and immediacy. He comments that Tzav implies “zerizut miyad & l'dorot,” meaning do something eagerly, do it immediately AND do it for future generations.

The corporate sponsor for this week should be Nike, “Just do it!”

Even if you don't think it's relevant, you should do it, besides the change now is easier than the change that will be required later. I call this my “Iceberg Theory of Change.”

A few years ago, I saw a documentary about oil rigs in the North Atlantic. The biggest enemy of oil rigs are icebergs. In a confrontation between the two, the iceberg is going to win. So, oil rigs have an elaborate anti-iceberg defense mechanism that involves radars and tugboats. Once they detect an iceberg coming, they send out a tugboat interceptor, which has three options. One is to try and blow the iceberg to smithereens. The other two (literally lassoing the iceberg or throwing the engines in reverse in front of the iceberg to create wake) are designed to alter the course of the iceberg by a miniscule amount. However, at a distance of 300 miles, a deviation of a few degrees or so will make the iceberg miss the rig by 200 miles or something ridiculous like that (the mathematicians out there can give you the exact numbers, but you get the idea.)

So, what’s the point? Well, the sooner you see the need for change and the sooner you make the change, the easier it is going to be. It’s easier to change the course of an iceberg by 1 degree than 30 degrees, which is what you’d need to do as it gets closer to you.

Rashi’s point is that your actions now are going to, in large part, determine your actions in the future. There’s no point in saying “I’ll keep shabbos when I get married” or “ I’ll daven every day when I have kids who are old enough to understand.” If you attach value to it, you should start doing it now.

The details of the process are what sanctify the end result.

Judaism does a great job of infusing the mundane with the sacred by making each step unique and holy and thus making the entire process, not just the end result holy.

In Tzav, we see that you just can’t get up and decide that you will make a sacrifice. In Good to Great, Jim Collins shows us how you just can’t “poof” become a Great company. Similarly, you can’t just show up at a Seder and expect to fulfill the mitzvah of “Higadta Le Vincha.” I would submit that your ability to wholly fulfill this mitzvah is pre-conditioned on the degree of your engagement in the discipline of it all that is required to prepare for the Seder/Chag and in your ability/conscious choice to revel in it.

Why? If you just show up at a seder, it’s a meal like any other meal. Your children are supposed to ask you “Mah Nistahna?” but with no real reason to ask this question, they are just meeting expectations. If, however, they see the joyous effort that goes into the preparation and the opportunity to meaningfully engage in work where others simply bemoan it, there’s a better chance that they will AUTHENTICALLY wonder “hey, what’s going on here? Why am I schlepping all of these dishes? Something is different and I’d like to know what.” Or, as I’d prefer to quote that 80’s classic Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure, “strange things are afoot at the Circle K.”

The mitzvah of Vehigadta leVincha requires this genuine discourse and its fulfillment is in line with the trait described by Collins of having a greater commitment to the success of the organization than the self. Perhaps we can take comfort in the fact that despite all of the bad news about Jewish continuity, 92% of American Jews attend at least one seder (that’s more than go to shul on Yom Kippur) and this attendance with its concurrent obligation for everyone to participate either as a speaker or a listener in the Vhigadeta LeVincha mitzvah (it’s almost like a board meeting on a national level) means that most of us are committed to the long-term success of the organization.

And perhaps that is why we come down so harshly on the Rasha. In Collins’ words, he is a wrong person and we need to get him off the bus.

In essence, you’re doing this Mitzvah for the team and, not directly profiting, the same way that the Kohen in this week’s parsha may not benefit from the Olah, the burnt offering.

This whole process of focusing on the details…of preparing the sacrifices, preparing for Pesach, or building enduring companies gives us an opportunity to emulate G-d.

Think back to Bereishit.

First, G-d focuses on the details of each day, which he describes as “Tov,” Good. Then, at the end of the week, when all is done and Shabbat is upon Him, he says “tov meod,” essentially Great. This is the first of Hashem's own Good 2 Great transitions and culminates in what many scholars call the 1st shabbat hagadol.

The other Shabbat HaGadol is, of course, today. My personal favorite explanation for why today has that name is that people returned later from shul on that day because of the unusually long discourse that was customary on that day (perhaps even at the Hashkama minyan!). I was going to use that as an excuse to keep going, but the first rule of speaking is “know your audience,” so I’ll wrap it up.

Collins points out that the Good to Great transition is an ongoing process, not a one-time event, and it’s a state of mind which must be frequently revisited. Pesach represents an opportunity to re-evaluate what we as a people need to do in order to continue b’chol dor va dor, in every generation, to make that leap from Good to Great.

Shabbat Shalom.

Inconvenient Truth and the Dem-GOP bridge...

I'm definitely feeling the powerful reverberations after watching Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth.

It came at a confluence of a few other items that heightened my awareness of the challenges around global warming.

In Scientific-American, I read Why Grassroots Initiatives Can't Fix Climate Change, which profoundly impacted me, particularly as a father:

Or think about it this way. Imagine you are living in the year 2108, and you are keenly aware that the political dislocations all around you were preventable catastrophes. Decades of turmoil caused by vast migrations of people who could not find enough food or clean drinking water; the crop-destroying volatility in the weather; the drying up of capital as investors withdraw whatever they can from unruly markets; the scourges of insects and disease set loose by the poleward advancement of the tropics—all of these are the legacy of your forebears who should have known better.

Wouldn’t you look back and shake your head at the feeble attempts at mitigation by the present age, the endless dithering over the reality of climate change, the head-in-the-sand policies that assumed addressing the problem could be put off for another day and that the future would be clever enough and rich enough to take care of itself?

Combine that with the powerful 20 minute (but well worth it) video of The Story of Stuff, showing how our consumption is digging us a hole from which we can't escape.

Put it all together and you are looking at a scenario where Surging Food Prices Mean Global Instability and where countries may have to engage in a Blood for Oil? or for food? foreign policy.

Not wanting this type of future for my kids, as Gianni sits here next to me, I am reflecting on the conversations I've recently had with some of my more liberal friends, challenging the Republicans for their lack of concern for environment/global warming. Fair, I might add.

What I realized is that there are different perceptions on the left and right about which pending disaster will get to us first.

The left thinks global warming.

The right thinks radical Islam.

Granted, the first destroys the earth and the second "only" Western Civilization, but I think we can agree that there are some good things to Western Civilization.

I wonder, then, if the opportunities for common ground, namely eliminating our dependence on (foreign and fossil) fuels in favor of cheaper, renewable energy are so great that the other differences can be put aside.

I'm not the first to realize this, of course, and you should take a look at Gal Luft's work at IAGS to see some areas of overlap, but is there enough folks who (for the most part) agree on these as core issues and don't care as much about secondary issues to create a true movement?

In some respect, as Jeff commented on the oil post previously (the most commented on post in Jer979 Blog history, btw), the best thing we can have right now to save the planet is $4/gallon (and rising) gas prices, since market forces will compel us to find other ways, but the "moral imperative" as Gore describes is there as well (full disclosure: I endorsed Gore in '88 when he ran for President; ok, I was a teenager, but still)

I know the steps/awareness is happening. Met with the folks at Discovery Channel the other day and they now have 100% recycled biz cards (they do feel a bit flimsy), but they are making a statement in another way. And it's consistent with their Planet Green efforts.

The question is: how much time do we have?

Movie Review: Syriana

As I was watching this movie, I thought that it was a perfect companion to a book that I had previously read called The Prize : The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power.

The oil issue is so complex and involves so many angles and money that it's almost impossible to identify all of them, but Syriana did a very good-and balanced, I thought-job of telling the story.

The characters were empathetic, the interwoven-ness of it all was confusing (as it should be) and the moral quandaries presented were first rate.

Solid, solid movie

Drill, Baby, Drill..

Image by NewsHour via FlickrThe refrain from St. Paul/ RNC convention has been haunting me recently. 

It's not that I think we shouldn't drill in Alaska. We probably should.  It's what the chant symbolizes.

And it's not a callous disregard for the environment.

It's the propensity for people to prefer short-term quick fixes to long-term strategic solutions.

Yes, if we drill, oil/gas prices will probably fall...which, honestly, is NOT what we want. At higher prices, entrepreneurs see the incentive to pursue alternative energy.

That's what we need.

When I hear "drill, baby, drill," I hear people who say 'let's just solve this problem for today...not for tomorrow."

That's not what we  need.

Got a forward from Josh with a Tom Friedman article that does a really good job of explaining it.

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The Destruction of Western Civilization...

There were probably a few moments before the fall of the Roman Empire when some citizens of Rome realized what they were up against in terms of the Vandals, Goths, Huns, etc. and there was probably a chance to save it. However, they were most likely castigated by those who thought that the status quo was fine or that "Rome couldn't fall" or something like that.

I fear we may be in a similar time in the history of the United States. Believe me, I hope we're not, but the signs are weighing heavily on me.

There are 3 major concerns

1. There is a portion of our society which doesn't recognize that the US/Western civilization is in a war for its very existence with Islamo-fascists. If you don't recognize this, you're not going to be motivated to do much about it.

2. There is a portion of our society that-through moral relativism/equivalency-has abandoned the moral highground; that Democracy/Freedom, etc. are RIGHT and GOOD and dictatorships/fascism is WRONG and EVIL; that there is NO negotiation with the forces of EVIL and that they must be destroyed.

You want an epic struggle of good vs. evil? Forget Lord of the Rings or Chronicles of Narnia, you've got one playing out on your TV screen everyday and I'll tell you something...Hezbollah/Syria/Hamas/Iran is not the force of GOOD.

Bush/Rice et. al. get this. If Kerry were pres now, it'd be a disaster.

3. And in the cruelest irony of all, we're paying for both sides of the war.

As oil prices go up, we pay more to our enemies, which makes the need to destroy them even greater...which raises oil prices. I do feel that Bush has let us down in this respect. We need a Manhattan Project for alternative energy and we need it now! Gal Luft has been shouting this for a long time...more people need to listen.

If the stakes weren't so high (a nuclear Iran and our very existence), the attitude of the Left and the bulk of CNN/MSNBC commentators would be highly amusing.

Gratitude Journal- Day 22: Epi Pens

I have a pretty severe allergy to sesame seeds (not oil) and tree nuts ( but not almonds, pistachios, pine nuts or peanuts).

Last night, we went out to dinner at a local Israeli place.

Anyone who has been to Israel knows that they basically fly planes over the entire country and consistently air drop sesame seeds on pretty much anything you can imagine. Pretzels, dates, etc. I think they make you walk through a pile of sesame seeds after you get your passport stamped when you enter the country.

And it's insidious because, for example, take something like hummus. Ground up chick peas, right?

Yes, but added in Tahina and boom...death trap.

As a result, I know to be VERY careful.

Asking is usually not a good idea because Israelis don't even realize how it is everywhere--the hummus example being the bets one.

But last night, I got caught...there was a beet salad that had a sauce which, I am pretty sure had a Tahina base.

Sure, you could say, "Jeremy, why take the risk?"

A fair and noble question, but let's ignore that for another time.

I got hit...hard. I was miserable. I thought I could fight through it. Water, claritin, benadryl.

Nothing. Finally, after a few hours of misery and a couple vomiting attacks, I stabbed myself with the Epi-Pen and...voila. All set.

Another valid question is: why didn't you do it sooner?

We can also ignore my own psychology on that one. The point is...it worked. Well.

So, today, I am grateful for the Epi-pen and its wonderful abilities.

Subway Nirvana

I’m not a golfer, but one of the highlights of golf that is shown most frequently is when a long drive lands within inches of the pin. It’s probably one of the great feelings in the sport.

I get that type of feeling when the subway door at which I am standing is the absolute closest to the exit I need.

On a regular commute-for many-this becomes second nature. But it is on the atypical journeys (as the one I took this morning to my office from my car dealer [oil change]). I nailed it perfectly!

Maybe it’s a Type-A thing…

When I lived in Manhattan, my two roommates and I entered the subway at 96th and Broadway at precisely the moment our train was leaving-of course.

Two of us immediately began to walk the length of the platform.

The third, Ron, said, “Hey what are you guys doing?”

We looked at him in total disbelief. “What do you mean, ‘what are we doing?’ We’re walking to the point where, when we get off the train, we’ll be at our exit!”

“Why?”

We just shook our heads and Ilan said (half-jokingly) “I’m not sure you’re cut out for this city.”

Two months later, in fact, he had moved out to the burbs. J

Moscow-Now, I get the whole “Russian Winter” Thing…

As soon as I walked out of the airport into the February cold (it was 3 degrees Fahrenheit), I said, “Ok, now I understand why Napoleon and Hitler didn’t make it.”

Man, it was BRUTAL!!

After 8 minutes of being outside of the Metro (which is GORGEOUS because during the 30s and 40s, all of the wealth was appropriated from the aristocracy to create the “people’s subway), on our way to Red Square, I said, “ok, I’ve had enough, I’m declaring victory.”

I had on thermal underwear and 4 layers of clothing. I couldn’t feel my face. I only had about 2 hours to do my sightseeing, so along with my dad and sister (who joined me on this trip), I went to Red Square, saw the Kremlin, Lenin’s Tomb, St. Basil’s Church, the GUND department store (which, I am told, was sort of the bastion of communism, but now is a display of capitalist largesse—the irony wasn’t lost on me), and rode the Metro.

Oh, we also saw the building of the Bolshoi ballet from across the street.

Anyway, Moscow is kind of like the Wild West. Rules sort of apply.

It’s clear that there is a “westerner” tax on pretty much everything. A 10 minute cab ride is $30 (and that’s after you negotiate), for example.

There’s also apparently a set of “oligarchs” who are able to buy some sort of blue light to affix to the top of their automobiles. Once they do that, it’s like an EZ-Pass for Traffic. People are supposed to move out of their way and recently, someone didn’t and was killed by a speeding car.

And it extends down the chain. I didn’t see any, but heard about the “pazahloosta” sticks which some low-level policemen employ. Basically, in the middle of traffic, they pull your car over and won’t release you until you’ve paid them off with a bribe.

That being said, a lot of stuff does seem to work pretty well. The metro, of course. Traffic, while heavy, isn’t nearly as chaotic as some places, and, well, let’s just say that they have mastered the art of snow removal.

I suppose necessity is the mother of invention in this respect and, apparently, there are conveyor belts to extricate the snow from the city to the surrounding areas.

Speaking of snow and temperature, one movement that hasn’t arrived here (and doesn’t seem likely to) is the “no fur" coats one. There are a TON of fur coats. In the US, these people would be ostracized.  In Moscow, it’s commonplace. I guess it’s survival and practicality.

Speaking of survival, the Darwinian question which arose in my head was: “how the hell did the Russians survive their own winter in the days before heating, thinsulate, and gore-tex? I mean, I was cold most of the time and I was barely outside at all.

Maybe this partially explains the expertise with sauna maintenance.

I love saunas. The hotter, the better. I had my bachelor party at the Russian Bath House on 10th St. in Manhattan and I know the difference between a great sauna and a not so great sauna.

During the month of February, I was in saunas in Sao Paolo, Bogota, Munich, and Moscow and let’s just say, in this respect, the Europeans dominate. They really know what they are doing. (I know, I need to go to Finland, but that’s another day.)

Speaking of the sauna, I met a Russian guy who now lives in Seattle and works for Boeing and he helped put into words some of my observations.

Moscow is a city that is struggling for its identity.

On the one hand, you have the oligarchs, the people who make a TON of money in oil, natural gas, and diamonds (in the East), but spend it here. It’s the financial and commercial capital. Some of the clubs have tables that go for $10k a night. It’s crazy. The desire for the accoutrements of wealth, the name brand designers is evident. There are is also some really beautiful architecture and the wide boulevards were appealing to me.

On the flip side, there’s plenty of the Soviet-style utilitarian architecture. There’s a LOT of corruption and there’s concern about a potential political upheaval (and that fears drives the tolerance for the Putin heavy-handed regime which, for example, won’t allow Blackberry Messenger to work in the country because the information can’t be read by surveillance technologies—or so I’m told).

From the marketing perspective, customer service (aside from the high-end places) isn’t really a core competency. There’s a gruffness to the approach and it’s always so comfortable.

I was told MANY times that “Russians don’t smile.” The combination of the hardships of life here, the cold, and uncertainty make people not only drink vodka, but also there’s some sort of “Russian soul” that says “you don’t show emotion.”

Interestingly enough, I remember when I filled out the visa (which was, BY FAR, the most difficult I’ve encountered), that there was a stern warning that your visa picture could NOT be of you smiling. You had to be straight-faced. Mine was borderline, but I made it.

Speaking of the visa,  you had to tell them what day you were arriving and departing from the country. If you got the visa and your travel plans changed, you have to reapply. Crazy.

All that being said, I found that, in many cases, especially among younger Russians (who often speak English well and much better than older Russians), that this “no smiling” wasn’t the case. In my presentation at Microsoft (the reason for my trip), I saw many people laughing and smiling (or maybe I’m just really entertaining.)

I could go on (and might in a future post, who knows?) and there’s obviously a lot here, but I guess the one thing that kept popping into my head, given that I came of age during the Cold War was “holy goodness, I’m in Moscow!”

That and “I wonder if I get "extra hard core” bonus points for coming here in February?”

The 7 Species-Shtetl Fusion Cholent

Trying to expand the Top-Chef inspired cooking repertoire from the Mediterranean-Shtetl Fusion

There are  7 traditional species of Israel, so tomorrow's cholent has the following ingredients. We'll see how it goes

• Rib steak (which I seared beforehand)
  
• grilled onions
• olive oil
• pomegranate juice
• dates
• grapes
  
• figs
• barley
• bread crumbs (wheat)
• mayonnaise (for texture)
• turmeric
• cinnamon
• pepper
• sauteed garlic cloves
• saffron
• a few apricots
• pinch of ginger
• 2 sweet potatoes
  

It'll either be great...or a disaster.

Updated: ok, it was neither great, but not a disaster. It smelled great, but the taste lacked punch or "kick."  There's potential, but needs works